How long before we reach the Singularity?

[Grimfate126]

from KurzweilAI.net:

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

for the full essay, visit: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.../art0134.html? (VERY long)

But anyway, I was just wondering when people think we will reach this state of technology, if ever. It really is remarkable how far technology has come. I remember my first computer back in 1995. 16 MB ram at the max, probably 100 MHz, and a couple megabytes of HDD space. fast forward to today, and im running a dual core 2.4 GHz computer, 500 GB of space, and 2 gigs of ram. All in about a decade, which is amazing to me.

I think itll be another 1000-2000 years before we reach it, hopefully less

[crzyaznkdxd]

its a scary thought, but know you still can't wait for it to happen you know? the merging of biological and nonbiological sounds cool. i read an article a while ago, cant seem to find it, about scientists using bacteria to do some math problems. it was a really fascinating read. ill try to find it.

[edit]found it

[Vee]

Look at mobile phones, a few years ago we were still using black and white bricks. Now the latest phones have 5MP cameras and 8GB's of memory.

Its frightening how fast things are changing.

[Skyline34]

Just don't start making Artificial Humans, I don't really want Judgement Day to really happen.

I can't imagine what kind of Televisions we'll have in say 10-15 years time... 4320p resolutions and virtual interactions... well one can dream.

[slicer4ever]

HOLY FING **** that was the longest essay i've ever read!!!!!

and now i feel intelligent, also grim, if you read that essay why are you asking how long until the singularity, the guy says about 25 years from now(well 30 when he obviously wrote the article), and backs it up with data, however it's time for some research to see how close his predictions have come true thus far(and also gave an great explanation as to why we don't see any aliens yet imo)

[GW2]

i think estimating when that happens is almost as crazy as trying to prove god exists, so im not going to give an estimate lol, but i will say i hope im alive when it happens!

[slicer4ever]

did no one else read the dam thing(i know it's long but it gives a pretty dam good explanation of what we can expect), and GW2 just don't die in 30 years and your good=-)

[Anti-QuickJay]

I seriously doubt it will be 30 years til we reach this.

Maybe a couple hundred atleast.

[|-Anubis-|]

The Last Question

Its a short story by Isaac Asimov of "The Three Laws" fame. Its very related to the "singularity" as you put it.

[Slasher]

I honestly don't believe that technology will continue to improve exponentially. It only has recently because we're in a technologic revolution currently...it can only slow down from here on in. (Similar to the industrial revolution experienced in the early 1900's). AI will never surpass the human brain. Technology can only go so far.

[Grimfate126]

I honestly don't believe that technology will continue to improve exponentially. It only has recently because we're in a technologic revolution currently...it can only slow down from here on in. (Similar to the industrial revolution experienced in the early 1900's). AI will never surpass the human brain. Technology can only go so far.

im quite certain that as far as processing power goes, the brain will easily be surpassed. obviously, you're talking about actual intellect, and our extraordinary abilities, then thats a different matter. but it may still be possible.

there are many techniques that can be used to still exponentially speed up computers, from 3d chips, to Cell like ones. (imagine a 3d cell O.o)

[Judas]

I don't see how this works. Machines don't have intelligence, so how could theirs surpass ours? Machines only know what we tell them.

[Grimfate126]

I don't see how this works. Machines don't have intelligence, so how could theirs surpass ours? Machines only know what we tell them.

but AI's can, to some extent, think for themselves. although right now, we give them limited options (in the forms of "if statements" usually), they could eventually become intelligent(through some very complicated programming O.o). just look at how robots can now detect faces and objects.

neural networks also make for a way for machines to have intelligence, by "simulating" biological neurons:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neural_network

[slicer4ever]

either way we'll find out when it happens=-)

[reaperchad]

I agree w/ Slasher, but we never know.

[BinoPanda]

here is a really good video that talks about the evolution of technology among other things: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9pjZ39YtR8 if your impatient it starts talking about technology on the 4th minute but if you haven't already seen the video I'd watch the whole thing (although it does get hard to swallow near the end)

I honestly think that in the 40 50 years, technology will have evolved, so that it would show the same amount of change we saw from the 50's to now.

[cowsruledaworld]

from KurzweilAI.net:



for the full essay, visit: http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.../art0134.html? (VERY long)

But anyway, I was just wondering when people think we will reach this state of technology, if ever. It really is remarkable how far technology has come. I remember my first computer back in 1995. 16 MB ram at the max, probably 100 MHz, and a couple megabytes of HDD space. fast forward to today, and im running a dual core 2.4 GHz computer, 500 GB of space, and 2 gigs of ram. All in about a decade, which is amazing to me.

I think itll be another 1000-2000 years before we reach it, hopefully less

i think it has kind of started to pick up a faster pace, but more discoveries must be uncovered to make a gigantic leap into the singularity. We must find multiple means of using technology and right now communication technology is at its peak. Perhaps in the future more mobile technology will be brought up to high importance. Different means of using technology must be toyed with before an actual boom in technology will occur, because people will see how useful technology is for our daily lives.